Every visitor (organic, paid, partner, PR) lands on the tool; it converts curiosity into a list member and, for sellers, into a named-agent valuation request.

Certainty: The mechanism is proven at scale: ValPal network ~35k leads/month across agent sites (70,572 in 60 days); Zoopla MyHome valuation leads to agents +25% YoY. Accuracy: RICS says modern AVMs are within +/-5% in over 80% of standard urban cases; an open-data-only AVM will be weaker (estimate 7-12% median error), so show a range and sell the in-person valuation as the accurate answer.

Cash: Estimate: SMS verification credit (~GBP 0.04/SMS, estimate) + hosting; open data free; AI build cost ~0. Competing free AVMs exist (Rightmove, Zoopla, Chimnie free AVM, Mouseprice, GetAgent), so no paid data in v1.

Result: Estimate: 4-10k visits/month at month 12 x 3-6% sign-up; separately 0.5-1% of visits request a named-agent valuation. Benchmark that the widget converts: ValPal members average 33 sales valuation leads/month from their own sites at GBP 3-4 per lead (Starberry, 2021, stale); the ValPal network logged 70,572 leads in 60 days (fetched).

• ValPal postcode leads page (fetched): 70,572 leads in the past 60 days
• Starberry: valuation lead cost breakdown (snippet; 2021, STALE): ValPal GBP 3-4 per sales lead, 33 leads/agent/month
• Property Soup: Zoopla homeowner audience tops 6.4m (fetched; 8 Sep 2026)
• PropertyData: how accurate are AVMs (fetched; Aug 2025): RICS, within +/-5% in over 80% of standard urban cases; PropertyData has no AVM
• Chimnie free AVM (snippet)

Pay per click on seller-intent searches in sold postcodes; each verified request goes to that postcode's agent and joins our list.

Certainty: Several published UK CPL ranges agree (GBP 25-90) and the channel delivers within days. BUT the margin is thin: cost per accepted lead (~GBP 53 at base) is about the sale price (GBP 35-90). Safe for proving agents will pay; not a profit engine unless sold at GBP 70-90 in high-value postcodes or as booked appointments.

Cash: Published: GBP 3-8 per click for UK estate-agent searches (Nexavon snippet); CPL GBP 35-90 in most markets (MyLeadsFactory, fetched May 2026) or GBP 25-80 (estateagency.marketing snippet); recommended GBP 1,500-3,000/mo. First result: GBP 500 (~$700) buys ~10-15 leads in 2-3 weeks. Monthly $2,000 = GBP 1,500 (Standard).

Result: $1k = GBP 750. At CPL GBP 80 -> 9.4 leads x 75% accepted = 7; at CPL GBP 25 -> 30 x 75% = 22. Base case CPL GBP 40 -> 14 accepted. Acceptance 75% is an estimate.

• MyLeadsFactory: Lead generation for UK estate agents, 2026 playbook (fetched; 13 May 2026)
• estateagency.marketing: Lead generation for estate agents 2026 (snippet, reused from d1)
• Nexavon: PPC for estate agents (snippet): GBP 3-8 per click
• LeadSync: Google Ads for real estate 2026 (snippet, US): "how much is my house worth" avg CPC $7.34
• MyLeadsFactory UK real-estate PPC page (snippet): budgets GBP 1,500-2,500/mo single branch

Keeps every visitor for years; when life events make them sellers, the request goes to the postcode's agent (consent captured fresh at that moment).

Certainty: Proven by the market leader: Zoopla MyHome 6.4m homeowners, 1.6m return monthly, valuation leads to agents +25% YoY, best seller product converts 43% of leads to listings (Property Soup, 8 Sep 2026). Our uncertainty is list growth speed, not the mechanism.

Cash: Estimate: email service for up to ~10k contacts at ~$30-100/mo; 6 months to a list big enough to produce leads.

Result: Estimate from benchmarks: 18% of online sales valuations completed a sale within 2 years (ValPal, 2019, stale) -> ~0.75% of a valuation-user list sells each month (75 per 10k); we capture 20-50% of them -> 15-37. Year-1 lists are only ~1.5-5k (see scenarios), so 2-13 leads/month in year 1. Opens: real estate 35.5% incl. Apple MPP, CTR 1.7-2.3% (Brevo, MailerLite).

• Property Soup: Zoopla homeowner audience tops 6.4m (fetched; 8 Sep 2026)
• Estate Agent Today (snippet; Jan 2019, STALE): 18% of ValPal online sales valuations completed with HMLR within two years
• Brevo: email benchmarks 2026 (snippet): real estate open 35.53% incl. Apple MPP, CTR 2.32%
• MailerLite: email benchmarks 2025 (snippet): real estate click rate 1.72%

Agents already buy leads; we sell them exclusivity in their postcode district and prove it with free leads first.

Certainty: Budgets exist: Rightmove ARPA GBP 1,530/mo across 16,385 branches; agencies spend GBP 1,500-2,500/mo on managed lead-gen; ValPal, GetAgent, ValuQ, Rex Reach all sell to them. Against: agents get Meta leads at GBP 17.60 themselves, and 30-50% of paid vendor leads are ignored or contacted after 24 h, then blamed on the source.

Cash: Estimate: sending domains/mailboxes + tool ~$100/mo; free trial leads 3 per agent x ~GBP 40 CPL = ~GBP 120 (~$160) per trial; 3 trials + 2 months tooling = ~$800.

Result: Estimate: 300 emails/month -> 2-5% positive replies -> 30-50% take the trial -> ~50% pay. No published acceptance rate for third-party valuation leads.

• Property Industry Eye: Rightmove FY2025 (reused a5): 16,385 agency branches, ARPA GBP 1,530/mo
• MyLeadsFactory UK real-estate PPC page (snippet): budgets GBP 1,500-2,500/mo single branch
• Rex Software UK: Facebook ad benchmarks for UK estate agents (fetched; 29 Apr 2025, upd. 19 May 2025)
• MyLeadsFactory: Lead generation for UK estate agents, 2026 playbook (fetched; 13 May 2026)
• ValuQ vs portal leads (fetched; reviewed Apr 2026): GBP 99-299/mo flat, "free until your first instruction"

Searchers for "sold prices [street/town]" land on data pages; the page converts them into tracker subscribers and named-agent valuation requests.

Certainty: Incumbents own these queries (Rightmove, Zoopla 6.4m homeowner audience, OnTheMarket, Mouseprice, StreetCheck, Housemetric, PropertyData, Chimnie). A mature independent (Mouseprice) gets only ~46k visits/month. Positive: AI Overviews show on only ~4.5% of real-estate searches (aggregator snippet) and tools/original data still win in 2026 (Ahrefs, Jul 2026). Risk: Google "scaled content abuse" if pages are thin templates; keep a sales-count threshold and unique computed data per page.

Cash: Estimate: domain + static hosting/CDN + basic rank tracking; all data is free (PPD, UK HPI, EPC, ONS postcode directory). 150 + 6 months x 60 = ~$500 before ~1k organic visits/month. AI build cost ~0.

Result: Estimate: 5,000-15,000 organic visits/month at month 12 x 0.5-0.8% visit-to-lead. Ceiling reference: Mouseprice, a ~20-year-old sold-price site, gets ~46k visits/month (Similarweb snippet: 137.9k in 3 months). Leads are sellable only where an agent is signed (coverage), see summary.

• GOV.UK: Price Paid Data downloads and licence (fetched, gov)
• Similarweb mouseprice.com (snippet; Sep 2026): 137.9k visits over 3 months
• State of AI search in real estate 2026 (snippet, aggregator; attribution of 4.5% figure uncertain)
• Ahrefs: free tools SEO strategy (16 Jul 2026, reused from d3)
• Property Soup: Zoopla homeowner audience tops 6.4m (fetched; 8 Sep 2026)

Local news runs the numbers with a credit link; links lift uk-01 rankings and send some readers to the tool.

Certainty: Local price stories are a staple, but a new brand with no track record competes with Rightmove/Zoopla/Halifax indices; agency data shows links are expensive to earn.

Cash: Estimate: optional journalist database/press distribution ~$0-130/mo. Agency benchmark we avoid: UK ~GBP 610 per earned link (BuzzStream snippet); digital PR retainers from GBP 2,750/mo (Whito snippet).

Result: Estimate. Referral traffic 200-1,500 visits/month (estimate). Reach-style local sites run frequent house-price stories; whether links are followed is not verified.

• BuzzStream: digital PR costs survey (snippet): UK ~GBP 610 per link
• Whito: link building costs UK 2026 (snippet): GBP 72-456 per link; digital PR from GBP 2,750/mo

Brokers bring homeowners; we turn movers into agent leads and send the new mortgage back to the broker.

Certainty: Referral fees between agents and brokers are normal (GBP 120-500), but no published case of brokers running a value-tracker for lead sharing. Brokers are FCA-regulated and careful with client data; consent must name the agent.

Cash: Estimate: outreach tooling only; partner pay is revenue share (GBP 10-20 per sold lead, estimate) paid from revenue. Norm: brokers pay agents GBP 120-500 per referral (snippets), so a mortgage on the next purchase is their incentive.

Result: Estimate: 10 brokers x 300-1,000 client homeowners x ~0.1-0.15%/month asking for a valuation.

• Mortgage Matters: referral fees disclosure (snippet): broker share to agents ~GBP 120 average
• Legal Brokers: estate agent referral fees (snippet): panel conveyancers pay agents GBP 200-400 per case
• Propertymark: NTSELAT referral fees guidance (snippet)

Conveyancers pay for introductions; adds GBP per lead and lets us accept a lower agent price.

Certainty: Referral-fee norms are published, but take-up by our leads is unknown; NTSELAT guidance and consumer law require disclosing referral arrangements and amounts.

Cash: No cash; contracts only. Norm: panel conveyancers pay agents GBP 200-400 per case (snippet); our share as an introducer ~GBP 50-150 per instructed case (estimate).

Result: Estimate: 100 leads x 18-30% actually sell and instruct a conveyancer x 30-50% choose ours = 5-15 cases x GBP 50-150.

• Legal Brokers: estate agent referral fees (snippet): panel conveyancers pay agents GBP 200-400 per case
• Propertymark: NTSELAT referral fees guidance (snippet)

Executors and downsizers are high-intent sellers; their advisers are the gatekeepers.

Certainty: No published partner yields; solicitors must put client interest first and disclose referral fees; many already have agent relationships.

Cash: Estimate: outreach only; partner pay by revenue share from sold leads.

Result: Estimate; no published referral yield. Solicitors often instruct agents directly for estates.

• Propertymark: NTSELAT referral fees guidance (snippet)

Letting-only agencies have landlords who want to sell but no sales arm to serve them.

Certainty: No published referral yields; letting agents fear losing the landlord to a sales agent that also lets.

Cash: Estimate: outreach only; referral GBP 25-75 per sold landlord lead from revenue (estimate). A competitor already sells landlord and seller leads to agents (Rentround).

Result: Estimate. Landlord exits are a live theme (Renters' Rights Act 2025 reforms; known, not re-checked this round).

• ValuQ vs portal leads (fetched; reviewed Apr 2026): GBP 99-299/mo flat, "free until your first instruction"

When an AI answer cites our local index, a few high-intent users click through to the tool.

Certainty: Only 7% of UK agents see AI search helping listings (EAT, Sep 2026); AI answers for property cite Rightmove/Zoopla first; volume is tiny and unmeasurable early.

Cash: No extra cash; same pages as uk-01.

Result: Vendor claim: "1-3 inbound enquiries per month per piece of cited content" after a 6-12 month build (MyLeadsFactory, May 2026). AI referrals ~0.15% of web traffic (d3, aggregator).

• MyLeadsFactory: Lead generation for UK estate agents, 2026 playbook (fetched; 13 May 2026)
• Estate Agent Today (snippet; Sep 2026): 7% of agents say AI search helps listings

Cheap mass reach to homeowners; most become list members, a minority are sellable valuation requests.

Certainty: Raw CPL is well documented (186 accounts), but raw Meta leads are low-intent and agents can buy them themselves at ~GBP 17.60, so they will not pay GBP 50 for them. Housing SAC removes age/gender/postcode targeting. Only qualified leads are sellable; cost per qualified ~GBP 50-70 is at or above the sale price.

Cash: Published: median vendor-lead CPL GBP 17.60 on Meta lead ads across 186 UK agency accounts (GBP 449,794 spend; CPM GBP 4.65; CTR 7.4%) (Rex, Apr 2025, fetched); GBP 18-60 per hyper-local market-report download, 20-30% of which become valuation requests within 90 days (MyLeadsFactory, fetched). Test: GBP 300 (~$400).

Result: $1k = GBP 750. Raw leads at GBP 17.60-30 = 25-43; qualified share 25-35% (estimate; MyLeadsFactory: 20-30% of report downloads become valuation requests in 90 days) -> 6-15.

• Rex Software UK: Facebook ad benchmarks for UK estate agents (fetched; 29 Apr 2025, upd. 19 May 2025)
• MyLeadsFactory: Lead generation for UK estate agents, 2026 playbook (fetched; 13 May 2026)
• Meta Business Help: audiences for credit, employment or housing (snippet): housing rules cover Europe incl. UK since Dec 2021

Admins share genuinely local data; members click to see their street and sign up.

Certainty: No benchmark; admin-gated; AI bots/automated accounts are against the model and platform rules, so a real human profile must do the outreach.

Cash: Estimate: paid admin posts ~GBP 20-100 each; no published UK rate found.

Result: Estimate; no published yield. Many local groups ban estate-agent and lead-gen posts.

Pay per click to reach verified neighbours in sold postcodes.

Certainty: Only US cost data; UK Nextdoor reach not verified; CPC is 10-50x Rex's Meta CPC (GBP 0.06).

Cash: Nextdoor Ads Manager self-serve since Jun 2025, no minimum spend (snippet); ~$2.50-5 CPC, ~$20 CPM (US aggregator snippet). Test GBP 200 (~$270).

Result: Estimate: 200-400 clicks per $1k x 2-5% conversion. UK cost data not found.

• Choco Media: Nextdoor ads 2026 costs (snippet, US aggregator): ~$2.50-5 CPC, ~$20 CPM
• Browser Media: Nextdoor self-serve Ads Manager launched Jun 2025, no minimum (snippet)

Research input for uk-01/uk-06, not a traffic source.

Certainty: Rules forbid self-promotion; AI accounts get removed; the model bans AI bots in communities.

Cash: No cash.

Result: MSE: "Advertising is not permitted anywhere"; people connected to a website "shouldn't post about that product". r/HousingUK ~518k members; Reddit forces human verification on automated accounts (Mar 2026).

• MoneySavingExpert forum FAQs and rules (snippet): "Advertising is not permitted anywhere on the MSE Forum"
• GummySearch r/HousingUK stats (snippet): ~518k members
• TechCrunch: Reddit bot human-verification (25 Mar 2026, reused d3)

Physical reach to every home in a sold district.

Certainty: Agents already leaflet heavily; no published response rate found; cost per lead likely GBP 150+.

Cash: Estimate: ~GBP 0.50-0.75 per item printed and delivered for a 1,000-1,500 test; not researched this round.

Result: Estimate: 1,000-1,500 items x 0.1-0.3% response.

• GOV.UK: Price Paid Data downloads and licence (fetched, gov)